Find PMF by building MVP, getting early users, measuring retention (target 40%+ Month 2), iterating based on feedback, and running Sean Ellis test ("Would you be very disappointed if product disappeared?" - need 40%+ saying yes). Typically takes 12-36 months of iteration.
Product-market fit (PMF) roadmap: (1) Define hypothesis—What problem are you solving? For whom? Why will they choose you? Example: "Remote teams struggle with async standup updates. Our solution: 5-min video standups, async. They'll choose us because it's faster than Zoom meetings." (2) Build minimum MVP—Simplest version that tests hypothesis. 1-3 features. 4-8 weeks to build. Launch to 10-50 users. (3) Get early users—Personal network, Reddit, ProductHunt, cold outreach. Target 100-500 early users in first 3 months. (4) Measure key metrics—Retention: Do users come back? Target 40%+ Month 2 retention. Engagement: Do they complete core action repeatedly? NPS: Would they recommend? Target 50+. Use: How often do they use product? (5) Talk to users obsessively—10-20 user interviews per week. "What problem were you solving when you signed up?" "What almost made you cancel?" "What keeps you using our product?" (6) Identify patterns—Group feedback into themes. If 60% mention same pain point, that's signal. Ignore one-off requests. (7) Iterate ruthlessly—Fix top 3 issues every sprint. Re-measure metrics. Did retention improve? Repeat until Month 2 retention >40%. (8) Run Sean Ellis test—Survey users: "How would you feel if you could no longer use this product?" Very disappointed / Somewhat disappointed / Not disappointed. If 40%+ say "very disappointed," you have PMF. (9) If no PMF after 12 months—Pivot (change target customer, problem, or solution). Don't keep iterating same thing forever. (10) Scale after PMF—Only spend on growth (ads, sales team) after PMF validated. Scaling before PMF wastes money. PMF timeline: Best case: 6-12 months. Typical: 12-24 months. Warning sign: >36 months means likely wrong idea.
Superhuman: Started with 22% "very disappointed" (below 40% PMF threshold). Focused exclusively on making disappointed users into very disappointed users. Reached 58% PMF in 6 months. Now $1B+ valuation.
Slack: Had 93% daily active users in beta (strong PMF signal). Teams physically couldn't go back to email. Raised funding easily based on engagement alone.
Failed PMF search: Pivoted 4 times in 3 years chasing PMF. Never found problem worth solving. Ran out of money. Should have shut down after 18 months, started new idea.
Signals: (1) 40%+ users "very disappointed" without product, (2) 40%+ Month 2 retention, (3) Organic word-of-mouth growth, (4) Struggle to keep up with demand.
12-24 months of active iteration is reasonable. If no progress after 24 months despite iterations, likely wrong idea—time to pivot or shut down.
Pre-seed/Seed yes (based on team, vision). Series A extremely hard—investors want PMF proof (retention, revenue growth, unit economics). Don't scale before PMF.
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